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2026 Vol.27, Issue 4
A Strategy for Seismic Intensity Information for Earthquake Response on the Korean Peninsula

한반도 지진 대응을 위한 진도 정보 활용의 전략적 접근

Jeong-Hwan Lee1
,
Doyoon Lim2
,
Inchan Jeon3
,
Jae-Kwang Ahn4*
이 정환1
,
임 도윤2
,
전 인찬3
,
안 재광4*
1Undergraduate student, Department of Fire & Emergency Management, Kangwon National University Samcheok Campus
2Researcher, Earthquake and Volcano Technology Team, Korea Meteorological Administration
3Senior Research Engineer, KIT Valley Co., Seoul
4Assistant Professor, Department of Fire & Emergency Management, Kangwon National University Samcheok Campus
*Corresponding Author
1 April 2026. pp. 5-12
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Abstract

The Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) estimates region-specific seismic intensity in conjunction with the earthquake early warning (EEW) system and uses it for earthquake response decision-making. The estimated intensity is computed by applying ground-motion model (GMM) and site-amplification models to the source parameters estimated by EEW, and the models are empirical relations developed or validated from past observations. However, such an empirical framework is affected by the spatial-temporal limits of the data and the bias of the events used for training and validation, so it contains prediction uncertainty outside its original range of application. The KMA framework has been validated mainly using domestic records, and systematic verification for large earthquakes occurring abroad, such as in Japan, is limited. This study focuses on long-period ground motions that may be felt and potentially cause damage on the Korean Peninsula during large Japanese earthquakes. We evaluate the applicability and prediction bias of the empirical long-period forecasting relations used by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA). The results show that observations toward the Korean Peninsula are smaller even at the same distance than those in Japan. This suggests possible effects of the source (fault-motion direction), the path across the sea, and regional differences in attenuation and site response. Therefore, to improve the reliability of long-period prediction in Korea for large Japanese earthquakes, a long-period GMM that accounts for fault-motion direction, propagation path, and site characteristics is needed.

Keywords
Seismic intensity
Estimated intensity
Ground-Motion Model (GMM)
Earthquake Early Warning (EEW)
Long-period ground motion

대한민국 기상청(KMA)은 지진조기경보(EEW)와 연계하여 지역별 예상 진도를 산정하고, 이를 지진 대응 의사결정에 활용한다. 예상진도는 EEW에서 추정된 지진원 정보를 입력으로 지반 운동 모델(GMM)과 부지증폭 모델을 적용하여 산정되며, 사용되는 모델은 과거 관측기록을 바탕으로 개발 혹은 검증된 경험식을 기반으로 한다. 그러나 이와 같은 경험식 기반 체계는 관측 자료의 시·공간적 제한과 학습·검증 이벤트의 편중에 영향을 받기 때문에, 적용 범위를 벗어나는 조건에 대해서는 예측 불확실성을 내포하고 있다. KMA 예상진도 산정 체계는 주로 국내 기록을 중심으로 검증되어 왔으며, 일본 등 국외에서 발생한 대규모 지진에 대한 체계적 검증 사례는 제한적이다. 이에 본 연구는 일본 대규모 지진 발생 시 한반도에 체감 혹은 피해를 줄 수 있는 장주기 지진동에 주목하였다. JMA에서 활용되는 장주기 예측 경험식의 적용 가능성과 예측 편향을 평가하고자 하였다. 분석 결과, 한반도 방향 관측 값은 일본과 동일(유사) 거리라도 더 작은 것으로 나타났다. 이는 단층 방향에 대한 지진원 효과(Source effect), 해역 횡단 경로 효과(Path effect), 그리고 지역에 따른 달라지는 감쇠 효과 (site effect) 차이의 영향이 존재할 가능성이 있음을 시사하였다. 따라서 일본 대규모 지진에 대한 국내 장주기 예측의 신뢰도 향상을 위해서는, 단층 움직임 방향, 전파 경로, 부지 특성을 고려한 장주기형 GMM의 구축이 필요하다.

키워드
지진 진도
예측 진도
지반 운동 모델
지진조기경보
장주기 지진동
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Information
  • Publisher :Korean Geo-Environmental Society
  • Publisher(Ko) :한국지반환경공학회
  • Journal Title :Journal of the Korean Geo-Environmental Society
  • Journal Title(Ko) :한국지반환경공학회 논문집
  • Volume : 27
  • No :4
  • Pages :5-12
  • Received Date : 2026-01-27
  • Revised Date : 2026-01-27
  • Accepted Date : 2026-02-10
  • DOI :https://doi.org/10.14481/jkges.2026.27.4.5
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