Urban Seismic Risk Assessment Integrating Site Classification-Based Geotechnical Hazard,  Exposure,  and Vulnerability: A GIS-MCDA Approach

Jihye Kim; Jinkwon Yoo; Youngkarb Song; Youngsuk Lee

doi:10.14481/jkges.2026.27.3.5

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2026 Vol.27, Issue 3 Next Page

Urban Seismic Risk Assessment Integrating Site Classification-Based Geotechnical Hazard, Exposure, and Vulnerability: A GIS-MCDA Approach 부지분류 기반 지반 재해 인자와 노출·취약성 요인을 통합한 서울시 지진 위험도 평가: GIS-MCDA 접근법

1 March 2026. pp. 5-12

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Abstract

This study proposes a high-resolution seismic risk assessment framework for Seoul to support an enhanced understanding of urban seismic risk patterns. The framework evaluates seismic risk at a 250 m grid scale to capture spatial heterogeneity within the city. The assessment integrates Hazard (site-specific amplification potential), Exposure (quantitative concentration of assets and populations), and Vulnerability (sensitivity of physical and demographic components) using a GIS-based multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) approach. The results indicate that seismic risk in Seoul tends to be locally concentrated in areas where multiple risk components spatially overlap. High-risk hotspots requiring priority attention accounted for approximately 0.3% of the total study area. The dominant contribution to overall risk levels was associated with Exposure–Vulnerability interactions, suggesting that the concentration of vulnerable assets and populations rather than ground conditions. Furthermore, high-risk zones were classified into three typological categories based on their prevailing risk characteristics. These findings provide implications for region-specific risk management strategies, including seismic retrofitting and targeted support for vulnerable populations, to inform urban resilience planning.

Keywords

Seismic risk

Site classification

Social vulnerability

Exposure

GIS-MCDA, Urban resilience

본 연구는 서울의 지진 위험 특성을 보다 정밀하게 진단하기 위해, 지반공학적 요인과 도시 공간의 사회적 요인을 통합한 고해상도 지진 위험도 평가 체계를 제시하였다. 국제적 재난 리스크 평가 체계에 기반하여 재해 인자, 노출, 취약성으로 구성된 위험 요소를 설정하고, 이를 GIS 기반 다기준 의사결정 분석(MCDA)을 통해 통합적으로 분석하였다. 분석 결과, 서울시의 지진 위험도는 위험 요인이 중첩되는 특정 공간에서 국지적으로 집중되는 경향을 보였으며, 즉각적인 관리가 요구되는 고위험 핫스팟은 전체 면적의 약 0.3%로 나타났다. 위험도 수준은 지반 조건보다 자산과 인구의 밀집도 및 취약성이 결합된 특성에 의해 좌우되는 것으로 나타났다. 또한 고위험 지역은 위험 구성 특성에 따라 재해 인자–노출 집중형, 도심 복합 취약형, 주거 밀집 및 인구 취약형의 세 가지 유형으로 분류되었다. 이러한 결과는 내진 성능 보강과 취약계층 보호를 포함한 지역 특성 기반의 도시 회복탄력성 강화 전략을 검토하는 데 기초 자료로 활용될 것으로 기대된다.

키워드

지진위험도

부지 분류

사회적 취약성

다기준 의사결정 분석(MCDA)

도시 회복탄력성

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Information

Publisher :Korean Geo-Environmental Society
Publisher(Ko) :한국지반환경공학회
Journal Title :Journal of the Korean Geo-Environmental Society
Journal Title(Ko) :한국지반환경공학회 논문집
Volume : 27
No :3
Pages :5-12
Received Date : 2025-12-29
Revised Date : 2026-01-06
Accepted Date : 2026-01-30
DOI :https://doi.org/10.14481/jkges.2026.27.3.5

Journal of the Korean Geo-Environmental Society ISSN:1598-0820(Print) 2714-1233(Online) 한국지반환경공학회 논문집

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