All Issue

2026 Vol.27, Issue 1 Preview Page
Prediction of Slope Displacement Using Prophet Model

Prophet 모델을 활용한 비탈면 변위 예측

Jongin Kim1
,
Kounghoon Nam2
,
Jongtae Kim3
,
Seungcheol Baek4*
김 종인1
,
남 경훈2
,
김 종태3
,
백 승철4*
1Administrative Officer, Gyeongsangbuk-do Provincial Government
2Researcher, Fire Insurers Laboratories of Korea
3CEO, Nature and Tec.
4Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Gyeongkuk National University
*Corresponding Author
1 January 2026. pp. 15-21
PDF XML Citation
Abstract

Rainfall-induced ground deformation is a critical factor that can trigger landslides and other types of slope failure, making continuous monitoring essential. However, most previous studies have primarily focused on evaluating slope displacement using monitoring devices or sensors. In this study, we analyzed ground-deformation forecasting by applying the Prophet model to minute-interval deformation data. The results indicate that the model can achieve relatively high accuracy in short-term predictions, while uncertainty increases in medium to long-term forecasts. Nonetheless, such predictions remain useful for identifying potential risks and implementing preventive measures. Future research should focus on developing predictive models that integrate multivariate data and validating various slope displacement scenarios to reduce the uncertainty of predicted values and enhance model performance.

Keywords
Ground deformation
Monitoring
Prophet model
Prediction
Uncertainty

강우로 인한 비탈면 변위는 산사태 등을 유발시키므로 모니터링이 매우 중요하다. 그러나 현재까지 연구는 비탈면 변위에 대한 모니터링 장치나 센서를 이용해서 평가하는 연구가 대부분이다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 분단위로 수집된 비탈면 변위 데이터를 기반으로 Prophet 모델을 적용하여 변위 예측을 분석하였다. 예측 결과 단기간에는 상대적으로 높은 정확도를 가질 수 있으며, 중장기 예측에서는 불확실성이 증가하겠지만 잠재적인 위험을 식별하고 예방 조치를 취하는 데에 여전히 유용할 수 있다. 향후 연구에서는 다변량 데이터를 통합한 예측 모델을 개발할 필요가 있으며, 예측 모델의 성능을 향상시키기 위해서는 비탈면의 변위 시나리오에 대한 검증과 이를 통해 예측값의 불확실성을 줄이는 것이 필요하다.

키워드
지반변위
모니터링
Prophet 모델
예측
불확실성
References
1

Cho, J. H., Choi, J. H., Kim, Y. S., Yeon, J. H., Lee, S. J. and Ji, B. J. (2022), Slope failure prediction study based on LSTM autoencoder, Journal of Agricultural, Life and Environmental Sciences, Vol. 34, No. 3, pp. 345~353 (In Korean).

10.22698/JALES.20220034
2

Dewez, T. J. B., Leroux, J. and Morelli, S. (2016), Cliff collapse hazard from repeated multicopter UAV acquisitions: Return on experience, Proceedings of the International Archives of the Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences, Vol. XLI-B5, pp. 805~811.

10.5194/isprsarchives-XLI-B5-805-2016
3

Gritzner, M., Marcus, A., Aspinall, R. and Custer, S. (2001), Assessing landslide potential using GIS, soil wetness modeling and topographic attributes, Payette River, Idaho, Geomorphology, Vol. 37, No. 1, pp. 149~165.

10.1016/S0169-555X(00)00068-4
4

Haugerud, R. A., Harding, D. J., Johnson, S. Y., Harless, J. L., Weaver, C. S. and Sherrod, B. L. (2003), High-resolution LIDAR topography of the Puget Lowland, Washington, GSA Today, Vol. 13, No. 6, pp. 4~10.

10.1130/1052-5173(2003)13<0004:HLTOTP>2.0.CO;2
5

Jang, H. D. and Yang, H. S. (2010), An analysis of stability on rock slope by changing water level, Tunnel and Underground Space, Vol. 20, No. 1, pp. 7~14 (In Korean).

6

Kim, J. and Kim, T. J. (2021), Application of Facebook’s Prophet Model for Forecasting Meteorological Data, Journal of Korean Soc. Hazard Mitig., Vol. 21, No. 2, pp. 53~58 (In Korean).

10.9798/KOSHAM.2021.21.2.53
7

Kim, J. T., Kim, J. H., Lee, C. H., Park, S. C., Lee, C. J. and Jeong, G. C. (2023), Monitoring Landcreep Using Terrestrial LiDAR and UAVs, The Journal of Engineering Geology, Vol. 33, No. 1, pp. 27~37 (In Korean).

10.9720/KSEG.2023.1.027
8

Kim, K. D., Park, J. H., Lee, C. W. and Kang, M. J. (2016), Crack form and soil physical properties in land creeping area on Okjong, Hadong, Journal of Korean Forest Society, Vol. 105, No. 4, pp. 435~440 (In Korean).

10.14578/jkfs.2016.105.4.435
9

Kim, N., Choi, B., Choi, J. and Jun, B. (2020), Time series analysis of soil creep on cut slopes using unmanned aerial photogrammetry, The Journal of Engineering Geology, Vol. 30, No. 4, pp. 447~456 (In Korean).

10.9720/KSEG.2020.4.447
10

Lee, C. K., Moon, S. W., Yun, H. S. and Seo, Y. S. (2018), Infinite slope stability analysis based on rainfall pattern in Ulleung-do, The Journal of Engineering Geology, Vol. 28, No. 1, pp. 11~24 (In Korean).

10.9720/KSEG.2018.1.011
11

Lee, S. M., Kim, B. K., So, C. S. and Shin, M. S. (1974), Explanation text of the geological map of Yongduri sheet (1:50,000), Korean Institute of Geoscience and Mineral Resources (in Korean).

12

Miska, L. and Hjort, J. (2005), Evaluation of current statistical approaches for predictive geomorphological mapping, Geomorphology, Vol. 67, No. 3, pp. 299~315.

10.1016/j.geomorph.2004.10.006
13

Park, J. H., Choi, K., Bae, J. S., Ma, H. S. and Lee, J. H. (2005), Analysis on the characteristics of the landslide in Maeri (I) -With a special reference on geo-topographical characteristics-, Journal of Korean Forest Society, Vol. 94, No. 3, pp. 129~134 (In Korean).

14

Schulz, W. H. (2007), Landslide susceptibility revealed by LIDAR imagery and historical records, Seattle, Washington, Engineering Geology, Vol. 89, No. 1, pp. 67~87.

10.1016/j.enggeo.2006.09.019
15

Seo, J. P., Kim, K. D. and Woo, C. S. (2019), Analysis on displacement characteristics of slow-moving landslide on a slope near road using the topographic map and airborne LiDAR, Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial Cooperation Society, Vol. 20, No. 5, pp. 27~35 (In Korean).

10.5762/KAIS.2019.20.5.27
16

Shin, H. O., Kim, M. I. and Yoon, W. J. (2018), Application of geophysical exploration technique to the identification of active weak zones in large scale mountainous region, Journal of Korean Geophysical Society, Vol. 21, No. 3, pp. 162~170 (In Korean).

17

Stead, D. and Wolter, A. (2015), A critical review of rock slope failure mechanisms: the importance of structural geology, Journal of Structural Geology, Vol. 74, pp. 1~23.

10.1016/j.jsg.2015.02.002
18

Taylor, S. J. and Letham, B. (2018), Forecasting at scale, The American Statistician, Vol. 72, No. 1, pp. 37~45.

10.1080/00031305.2017.1380080
19

Walsh, S. J., Bian, L., McKnight, S., Brown, D. G. and Hammer, E. S. (2003), Solifluction steps and risers, Lee Ridge, Glacier National Park, USA: a scale and pattern analysis, Geomorphology, Vol. 55, No. 1, pp. 381~398.

10.1016/S0169-555X(03)00151-X
20

Yu, K. (2025), Mine subsidence monitoring and prediction integrating SBAS-InSAR technology and BO-Prophet model, PeerJ Computer Science, Vol. 11:e3327.

10.7717/peerj-cs.3327
Information
  • Publisher :Korean Geo-Environmental Society
  • Publisher(Ko) :한국지반환경공학회
  • Journal Title :Journal of the Korean Geo-Environmental Society
  • Journal Title(Ko) :한국지반환경공학회 논문집
  • Volume : 27
  • No :1
  • Pages :15-21
  • Received Date : 2025-11-18
  • Revised Date : 2025-11-21
  • Accepted Date : 2025-12-15
  • DOI :https://doi.org/10.14481/jkges.2026.27.1.15
Journal Informaiton Journal of the Korean Geo-Environmental Society Journal of the Korean Geo-Environmental Society
Online Submission
  • NRF
  • KOFST
  • KISTI Current Status
  • KISTI Cited-by
  • orcid
Journal Informaiton Journal Informaiton - close