Development of Ground Motion Prediction Models Using Spectral Accelerations Based on Seismic Station Data

Sinhang Kang

doi:10.14481/jkges.2026.27.8.27

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2026 Vol.27, Issue 8 Preview Page Next Page

Development of Ground Motion Prediction Models Using Spectral Accelerations Based on Seismic Station Data 국내 지진 계측 자료 기반 스펙트럴 가속도를 활용한 지반운동 예측 모델 개발

1 August 2026. pp. 27-34

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Abstract

Earthquakes with magnitudes of greater than 5 occurred in Gyeongju and Pohang, Gyeongbuk Province, in 2016 and 2017, respectively, causing significant damage and increasing the need for earthquake disaster prevention measures. To quantify earthquake damage, an accurate ground motion prediction model is required. However, existing models developed in Korea faced challenges in ensuring accuracy due to a shortage of seismic observation data compared to other countries. In this study, we propose a ground motion prediction model using spectral acceleration data acquired from Korean seismic records collected from 2003 to 2025. The proposed ground motion prediction model consists of a source effect model and a path effect model, and residual analyses are additionally conducted to validate prediction accuracy. The suitability of the proposed ground motion prediction model was confirmed through the standard deviation analysis of the residuals.

Keywords

Ground motion prediction model

Seismic data

Spectral acceleration

Residual analysis

Standard deviation analysis

2016년과 2017년에 경북 경주시와 포항시에서 규모 5 이상의 지진이 발생하여 여러 피해를 유발하였으며, 지진 재해 방지를 위한 대책을 마련할 필요성이 점차 증가하고 있다. 지진 피해를 정량화하기 위해 정확성을 갖춘 지반운동 예측 모델이 필요하지만, 기존 국내에서 개발된 지반운동 예측 모델의 경우 국외 대비 부족한 지진 관측 자료를 기반으로 개발되어 정확성 확보에 어려움이 있었다. 본 연구에서는 2003년부터 2025년까지 발생한 국내 지진 관측소 계측 자료를 기반으로 획득한 스펙트럴 가속도 자료를 활용하여 지반운동 예측 모델을 제안하였다. 지반운동 예측 모델은 지진의 진원 효과 모델, 경로 효과 모델로 구성되었으며, 예측 모델의 적합성 검증을 위해 잔차 분석을 수행하였다. 잔차의 표준편차 분석을 통해 제안된 지반운동 예측 모델의 적합성을 확인하였다.

키워드

지반운동 예측 모델

지진 계측 자료

스펙트럴 가속도

잔차 분석

표준편차 분석

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Information

Publisher :Korean Geo-Environmental Society
Publisher(Ko) :한국지반환경공학회
Journal Title :Journal of the Korean Geo-Environmental Society
Journal Title(Ko) :한국지반환경공학회 논문집
Volume : 27
No :8
Pages :27-34
Received Date : 2026-07-01
Revised Date : 2026-07-06
Accepted Date : 2026-07-20
DOI :https://doi.org/10.14481/jkges.2026.27.8.27

Journal of the Korean Geo-Environmental Society ISSN:1598-0820(Print) 2714-1233(Online) 한국지반환경공학회 논문집

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